Conference 13/07/2015 : China's place in the world

by Professor ZHANG Tiejun

 

 

China is reemerging as a soft power country

 

Two series of historical scenes:

• Britain was the most powerful country in the world, and Japan was interested in China so they took contact with each other. In the XVII century, Britain took contact with China.

• The end of 18th century: a British delegation visited China (the then Qing Dynasty) – “Central Kingdom” self-sufficient.

• 1840: The British Empire waged war against the Qing Dynasty – Starting the “century of humiliation” in early modern Chinese history

• 1982: British Prime Minister Thatcher met Deng Xiaoping on Hong Kong future – sliding on the stares – fall of British Empire.

• 2014: The UK was the 1st EU member to join AIIB (Bank in China)

 

Japan (the once most powerful country in East Asia)’s contracts with China:

• The 7th century: Japan sent dozes of delegation to China (Tang Dynasty)

• The 16th century: Japanese pirates raided southeastern coast of China

• The end of the 19th century: to challenge the dominant position of China in East Asia, Japan waged war against China

 

Constructing blocks of the Chinese identity:

• The central Kingdom Complex

  • Generated by the ancient history when China was the center of East Asian civilization,

    • Implying that the Chinese elites see the country’s rise […]

• The strong China Complex:

  • Resulted from Chinese “humiliated” experience in the early modern era

    • Which has been a crucial impetus behind the strong will of the Chinese elites and ordinary people to catch up the West and Japan.

• International Changes:

  • Disappearance of Sino-US-USSR strategic triangle and the problem between the US and China (from the end of 1980s onward)

• + Contemporary factors : International and domestic changes in the post-Cold War era

 

Four faces of the officially constructed national identity of China:

These would shad lights on the current Chinese foreign relations and foreign policies.

 

FACE 1: A socialist country with Chinese characteristics

Two dimensions of Chinese socialism = market economy and authoritarian regime :

Three powers at work:

• The unchallenged political power of the CCP

• Economic power is allowed to be share

  • Between the center and localities

  • Between the government organizations and enterprise

  • And even between Chinese firms and foreign firms

• The power of traditional Chinese culture

 

FACE 2: A sovereign state in the strict Wesphalian sense

Especially territorial integrity and “non-interference” policy

 

FACE 3: A developing nation in the globalization era

• China is a poor and developing country

• “Globalization is a double-edged sword for developing countries like China”

• Thus “development as the hard fact” (Den Xiaoping)

 

FACE 4: A world power asserting its position in the region and the world

• The World Power attribute

  • China is half a world power ( with some WP indicators)

  • China needs WP mentality

  • China should secure its world power interests in the region and in the world 

 

The Asian model (evolved between 1970s and 1990s)

• Asian value: collectivism, and state sovereignty (“national rights”) over human rights (individual rights)- Inn contrast to humanitarian intervention

• Active state intervention in economic development

• Authoritarianism (conceived as conducive to political stability)

 

The China model:

• Pragmatism

  • The cat theory

  • “Practice is the sole criteria for truth”

• Experimentalism

  • “Feeling the stone while crossing the river”

• Gradualism (as contrast to “shock therapy)

• Rural reform first, followed with urban reform

  • In urban reform, starting from SEZs

• Selective learning

  • Learning from the American new liberal economic model (the central role of the market; but not so much the ownership

  • Learning from the Singaporean model of civil servant system

  • Learning from some European countries (Spain, UK), the medical care system, etc…

• Political reforms lag far behind economic

 

 

The case of South China Sea: TERRITORAL POLICY OF CHINA

 

South China Sea territorial disputes are essentially between China on the one hand and Vietnam/the Philippine on the other, with the US supporting Vietnam and the Philippines. Therefore, it is also a competition between the US and China.

 

Different priorities of China and Russia

• Point 1: Respective and military endowment and potentials of the two countries.

  • Economically, China is the second largest economy of the world and its GDP (as of 2013) was […]

  • Militarily, Russia maintains the largest nuclear arsenal and a formidable conventional force especially its land force (Crimea is primarily threatens for land force […]

• Point 2: Different degrees of interconnection to the world economy

  • As compared to Russia, China’s much stronger position in the world economy appears to be a double edges sword,

    • In relation to its territorial disputes especially, that of maritime ones.

    • Being a more influential player in the world economy, China’s economic interdependence with other big economies of the world is also substantially greater than that of Russia.

 

Russia’s Strategic Priorities

• Both China and Russia are re-emergent powers, but their respective re-emergence is with different nature.

• Putin once said that the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the [….]

 

China’s Strategic Priorities

• China’s re-emergence, on the other hand is from far more remote ancient time, and president Xi Jinping’s “China dream” is

  • Essentially for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation

  • Implicitly implying making China once again the center of East Asia.

 

SCO = (Shanghai Corporation Organization)

• As such, the Chinese re-emergence does not lead to a rush for territorial expansion but imply a longer term historical vision to become a true world power of multi-dimensions

• Thus China’s highest strategic priority is still maintaining a peaceful environment conducive to China’ economic growth.

 

China’s dilemma

• China’s rapid rise vs. increasingly difficult position of China in South China Sea

• China proposing “shelving disputes and joint development” vs. Vietnamese “self developing” South China Sea Oil and gas.

• China’s insistence on bilateralism vs. US urge for “internationalization/multilateralization”

Thus, China’s commentators questioning: “Taoguang yanghui” still relevant, esp with regard to the South China Sea?

 

The interests involved

• Acquiring fishing areas aroung the two archipelagos Paracel and Spratly [….]

 

• United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) giving a country sovereignty overseas up to 12 nautical miles (22.2km/13.8 miles) from it coast, including islands.

• There is also a 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

 

DOC

• Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) (2002)

A non binding agreement between China and the Association of South East Asian Nations

(ASEAN)

 

Vietnam’s moves

• Demonstration against China in Hanoi and Other cities in Vietnam

 

Philippine moves

• Accusing China violation DOC

• Asking the US to help (the US ambassador said yes)

• Joint military exercise with the US

• Brought the disputes to International Court of the Hague in 2014

• Comparing China with Nazi Germany

 

Moves of the US and its allies

• Joint military exercise between  the US, Japan and Australia (first time in South China Sea)

• Japan showed supports to Vietnam and Philippines, and insists that China needs to be balanced

• US intruded into the 12 nautical miles of the islands

 

Non interference and China’s engagement with Africa

 

Five principles of peaceful coexistence

• Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity

• Mutual non-agression

• Non-interference in each others’ internal affairs

• Equality and mutual benefits

• Peaceful coexistence

 

Main motives of Chinese engagement with Africa

• Firstly, access to raw materials is perhaps the key motive for China

• Secondly, to a lesser extent, Chinese investments in African countries provide job opportunities for China’s own surplus labor supply

• Lastly, China has also very important political objectives.

 

Scope of China’s engagement with Africa

• Chinese FDI in Africa : accumulated Chinese FDI in Africa by 2012 was 14.7 billion USD (in comparison, US accumulated FDI to Africa was 87.8 billion by 2012)

• China’s trade with Africa: China-African trade reached the record of $200 billion in 2013 (in comparison, US trade with Africa was $96 billion in 2013, and European trade with Africa reached $137 billion in 2013)

 

Impacts of China’s non interference practice in Africa

• When providing aid to African countries, unlike Western countries, China attaches no political purpose except that the receiving countries should not recognized Taiwan diplomatically) therefore :

• China unconditional aid to Africa provides an alternatives to African countries an alternative to African countries and

• Western countries worry that this Chinese practice would undermine their “good governance” agenda in Africa.

 

 

China’s engages East Asia—the East Asian policy of the reemerging dragon

 

China’s promotion of East Asian regional cooperation since the late 1990s

 

One Belt One Zone Strategy—China’s attempt to reshape the international order

 

Announced in 2014, this strategy of the current Chinese leadership shows China’s dissatisfaction with the existing international economic and financial order, i.e. the Bretton Wood System (existed since the end of World War II and dominated by the US).